--- title: "Wine market 2026: global consumption, consumer trends and Italian data" description: "Wine market 2026: global consumption at its lowest since 1957, Italian sales down 2.8%, and a sector betting on premium wines and diversification." author: "Enovitae Staff" published: 2024-09-09 tags: ["market", "italy", "forecasts", "statistics", "trends", "2026"] url: https://enovitae.com/en/academy/italian-wine-market cover_image: https://enovitae.com/_astro/market_vino_italiano_2024.Be4ynk4V_2B8MT.webp source: Enovitae.com --- Wine consumption is a key indicator of cultural preferences, economic trends and social change. Italy remains the world's largest producer — but the picture in which it defends that position has changed sharply in the space of two years. Global consumption is at its lowest in almost seventy years, sales at Italy's largest producers are falling, and growth is no longer the base case. This article covers the most recent data, from the global context to the Italian figures, with the outlook for 2026. ## The global market: consumption in contraction **According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption in 2025 came to 208 million hectolitres, down 2.7% on 2024.** That is the lowest level since 1957: compared with 2018, global consumption has fallen by roughly 14%. Production, by contrast, held up: 227 million hectolitres, up 0.6%. This is the imbalance that defines the current market — more wine is being made than drunk, and the pressure lands on bulk prices and margins. In 2025, **nine of the world's ten largest markets recorded falling consumption**. The United States remains the largest market at 31.9 million hectolitres, but lost 4.3%. ### Europe Europe still has the highest per-capita consumption in the world, but its historic markets — France, Italy, Spain — are declining structurally. The causes are demographic and cultural: an ageing population, more health-conscious lifestyles, and above all a generational transmission of wine drinking that has broken down. ### North America The 4.3% US decline is the most consequential figure of 2025, because the United States has been the engine of premium demand for twenty years. The market is weighed down by tariff uncertainty, a repositioning of distribution, and a generational shift that is not choosing wine. ### Asia and emerging markets China has not recovered the volumes of the 2010–2020 decade. Japan and South Korea remain sophisticated but small markets, concentrated on premium wines and sparkling. India and Brazil are growing from a very low base: they are a prospect, not yet a support for global volumes. ## How preferences have changed Over the past 25 years consumer preferences have shifted in ways that go well beyond changes in market share. ### Varieties: tradition and new profiles Classic varieties such as Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot still dominate, but are losing ground to lighter profiles. Pinot Noir has grown thanks to its refined bouquet and demand for less structured wines. Among whites, Chardonnay keeps the lead, while varieties such as Viognier and Albariño gain ground for their aromatic freshness. ### Natural, organic and dealcoholised wines Trends around natural, organic, vegan and low-sulphite wines continue to shape buying decisions, but the numbers deserve precision. In 2025 [organic wines](https://enovitae.com/en/academy/organic-wine-market-italy.md) reached **6.2% of the market** among Italy's largest producers, with sales down 0.8%: a consolidated share rather than a rapidly expanding frontier. [No-and-low alcohol wines](https://enovitae.com/en/guide/dealcoholized-wines-explained.md) , meanwhile, remain **below 0.5% of the market**. They are discussed far more than they are sold — worth remembering when reading enthusiastic forecasts for the segment. ### Polarisation, and what changed For years the market polarised: growth at the top, resilience at the bottom, pain in the middle. In 2025 that dynamic eased in a way that offers little comfort — **everything is falling**, and the mid-price tier simply falls further (-3.1%) than basic (-2.7%) and premium (-2.2%). Premium holds up better, but it no longer grows. That is a substantive difference from the conventional reading of this market. ## The Italian market: production, exports and domestic consumption Italy confirms its position as the **world's largest producer with 44.4 million hectolitres**, 19.7% of the global total, slightly up on 2024 (+0.7%). The domestic figure tells a different story: **national consumption fell 9.4%**, from 38 litres per capita per year in 2022 to 35.6 litres in 2025. Italy is producing at a high and drinking at a low. What sustains the sector is exports. Italy's trade balance has grown at an average annual rate of 5% over twenty years, from €2.7 billion in 2005 to **€7.2 billion in 2025**. Italy is the **world's largest exporter by volume** (21 million hectolitres) and **second by value** (€7.8 billion, behind France's €11.2 billion). ## 2025 for Italian producers: sales, margins and channels The Area Studi Mediobanca survey covers 255 incorporated companies with 2024 revenue above €20 million and aggregate revenue of €12 billion, half of it abroad. It is the most solid sample available on the sector. ### Sales down, exports weaker than the domestic market In 2025 total sales fell **2.8%** against 2024. Foreign markets (**-3.4%**) did worse than the domestic one (-2.2%) — a reversal of the years when exports offset domestic weakness. By geography: **-6.3% in the United States** (which accounts for 70% of North America), -2.8% in EU countries (37.2% of the total), while the United Kingdom essentially held (-0.7%). ### Margins deteriorating This is the figure that separates this phase from a simple slowdown in volumes: - **EBITDA -4.2%** - **EBIT -9.5%** - **Net profit -7.5%** Margins are falling faster than sales. That means producers are absorbing lower bulk prices and supply-chain costs without being able to pass them downstream. ### Company size: who is hurting most Companies with 2024 revenue below €30 million lost **3.5%**, and capital-intensive ones — with tangible fixed assets above 30% of total assets — **3.7%**. In this phase, scale and a light balance sheet both protect. ### Sales channels | Channel | 2025 change | Market share | | --------------------- | ----------- | ------------ | | Ho.Re.Ca. | -2.0% | 17.2% | | Wine shops and bars | -5.1% | 5.5% | | Direct sales | -1.0% | 7.8% | | Own websites | -2.4% | — | | Third-party platforms | -3.6% | — | Online is no longer the structurally growing channel of the post-pandemic period: it is falling, and falling faster on third-party platforms than on producers' own sites. ### Products: sparkling wines hold [Sparkling wines](https://enovitae.com/en/guide/champagne-2025-high-prices-rare-bottles.md) confirm their position as the most resilient segment, with total sales down **1.5%** against **-3.3%** for other wines. It confirms a multi-year trend and, for Italian producers, is the most solid competitive asset they have. ## Italy's top wine players | Company | 2025 revenue (€m) | Change on 2024 | | ---------------------------- | ----------------- | -------------- | | Cantine Riunite-GIV | 635.1 | -4.6% | | Argea | 462.9 | -0.3% | | IWB | 395.9 | -1.5% | | Caviro | 351.3 | -8.8% | | Antinori | 259.7 | -0.7% | | Herita Marzotto Wine Estates | 246.7 | -0.6% | | Cavit | 242.8 | -4.1% | | La Marca | 234.7 | -6.5% | | Terre Cevico | 213.2 | +3.4% | | Mezzacorona | 213.0 | +0.3% | Some companies have an almost entirely export-based business: Fantini Group reaches 95.7%, Argea 93.8%, while Ruffino and Fratelli Castellani both exceed 90%. ## Italy's wine regions Veneto confirms its position as Italy's leading wine region, with a quarter of national volumes and more than **35% of the value**. It also leads exports, with over 35% of Italian shipments — double Piedmont and Tuscany, both at 15%. By value, Emilia-Romagna follows at 8.8% (with 12.4% of volumes) and Piedmont at 7.6% (4.4% of volumes). Puglia shows the widest gap between quantity and value: 15.2% of volumes against 7.4% of value. On profitability the record is Tuscan: an **EBIT margin of 15.5%**, the best in Italy. ## What to expect in 2026 Here the data says two apparently contradictory things, and both are worth holding together. On one side, **80% of Italian producers have seen consumption fall over the past five years**, and around two-thirds expect the trend to continue. On the other, **58% of the largest producers expect total sales to grow in 2026**, and 70% still consider the sector attractive. The most coherent reading is that the sector does not expect volumes to return, but a selection: fewer companies, larger, more focused on value. ### The levers producers are pulling - **Diversifying the product range** — 72% of companies - **Opening or developing new markets** — 64% - **Marketing and communication** — 60% - **Controlling the whole supply chain** as an organisational model — 50% - **New sales channels and sustainability** — around 45% On investment, total spending rose **3.5%** in 2025, concentrated on the winery (90% of cases), energy efficiency (77%) and technology (57%). Advertising went the other way: **-5.4%**, down to 2.6% of sales. The money is going into production, not into demand. ## Digitalisation and AI Digitalisation continues to reshape the sector, from [artificial intelligence applied to viticulture](https://enovitae.com/en/academy/ai-winemakers-technology-vineyard.md) to blockchain traceability and pairing apps. But the note of realism above applies: in 2025 online sales fell, both on company websites (-2.4%) and on third-party platforms (-3.6%). Technology is improving production more than it is expanding the market. ## Conclusion The wine market has entered a different phase from the one that defined the last decade. Global consumption is at its lowest since 1957, production remains above demand, and in Italy sales at the largest producers are down 2.8% with margins falling twice as fast. Italy does, however, hold defensible ground: largest producer in the world, largest exporter by volume, a €7.2 billion trade surplus and a sparkling segment that is holding better than anything else. The challenge is no longer to capitalise on growth but to choose where to stand in a market that is shrinking — and producers appear to understand that, if 72% name diversification as their main lever. ## Frequently asked questions about the wine market (FAQ) ### How much wine is consumed worldwide? In 2025 global consumption was **208 million hectolitres**, down 2.7% on 2024 and the lowest level since 1957. Compared with 2018, the contraction is around 14%. ### Is Italy the world's largest wine producer? Yes. At **44.4 million hectolitres** in 2025, or 19.7% of world production, Italy is the largest producer. It is also the largest exporter by volume and the second largest by value, behind France. ### How much wine do Italians drink? Domestic consumption fell to **35.6 litres per capita per year** in 2025, from 38 litres in 2022 — a drop of 9.4%. ### Which market segments are holding up best? **Sparkling wines**, with sales down 1.5% against -3.3% for other wines, and **premium wines** (-2.2%). The mid-price tier suffers most (-3.1%). ### Will the wine market return to growth in 2026? **58% of Italy's largest producers** expect sales to grow in 2026. At the same time, two-thirds believe the structural decline in consumption will continue: the expectation is a more selective market, not a return to previous volumes. --- #### Sources - [*Area Studi Mediobanca — The wine sector in Italy, 2026 edition*](https://www.areastudimediobanca.com/it/product/il-settore-vinicolo-italia-ed-2026) - [*Mediobanca press release, 20 May 2026*](https://www.qualivita.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CS-Mediobanca-vino-italiano-2026.pdf) - [*OIV — World wine production first estimates 2025*](https://www.oiv.int/press/oiv-releases-2025-world-wine-production-first-estimates) - [*wein.plus — OIV: wine consumption continues to decline in 2025*](https://magazine.wein.plus/news/oiv-wine-consumption-continues-to-decline-in-2025-global-vineyard-area-decreases-to-7-million-hectares) - [*WineNews — The 2026 outlook*](https://winenews.it/it/vino-giu-affari-e-consumi-ma-il-58-dei-big-si-aspetta-una-crescita-delle-vendite-nel-2026_591555/)